Brazil Political and Business Comment - Brazil - Still Waiting for Toninho Blair

Blair is the John F. Kennedy of our times, minus a glamorous Jackie-like wife. He is young, handsome, virile (the father of a baby son) and, above all, a proven winner. In the latest UK elections he humiliated, for the second time, the Conservative Party which used to regard itself as the natural party of government. On the international stage Blair sparkles beside grey worthies like George Bush, Lionel Jospin of France or Germany´s Gerhard Schroeder who has tried unconvincingly to model himself on Blair and who will also be shortly visiting Brazil.

Blair´s main achievement before becoming prime minister was to change the UK Labour Party from a flat-capped, trade union-dominated organisation with an out-of-date political creed centred on nationalisation, into a social democratic party in tune with the times. The parallels with Brazil´s Workers Party, the PT, are obvious. Although it is only around 20 years old the PT has become moribund in its ideas in a remarkably quick time. Yet for the first time since it was founded it has a fair chance of seeing its candidate win next year´s presidential election. This candidate will probably be Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who has already lost three presidential contests.

Lula Ignores Tony…

But where was Lula during Blair´s visit? Has he ever heard of Blair? Does he know about Blair´s achievements? Could he learn something from this younger man? Oh no, not Lula whose most recent foreign trips have been to Cuba and China. While Blair was talking about globalisation and visiting a high-tech jet factory in São Paulo state Lula was travelling around the country like a latter-day Luiz Carlos Prestes or a Maoist Long Marcher.

The only PT member of any weight who met Blair was the mayor of São Paulo, Marta Suplicy, the kind of champagne socialist Lula and Blair´s opponents despise. Marta, however, was doing a better job than her national leader and took up so much of Blair´s time that she was accused by the disgruntled PSDB of monopolising Blair at the expense of the state governor Geraldo Alckmin. As the PSDB is more in line with Blair´s “New Labour” than the PT this was quite a feat and Marta deserves some praise. Marta obviously enjoyed her tête-à-tête with Tony who was "charming" and "brilliant" she gushed afterwards.

She says she asked Blair if he would have liked to meet Lula to which the British prime minister replied positively. Marta said she would even try to arrange a meeting between them in October when Lula will be in France and offered to be the go-between. (Regular readers will detect the irony in the estranged wife of Senator Eduardo Suplicy, who wants to be the PT presidential candidate, acting out this role.) This is wishful thinking but, at least, whereas Blair showed interest in meeting Lula (according to Marta) Lula´s reaction to the visit was boorish and uncouth.

…and Behaves Like a Boor
He accused Blair of bluffing when he spoke of opening up the European Union´s market to Brazilian farm produce. This is probably true but if Lula had met Blair he would, at least, have had the chance to put his views to him in a constructive way rather than sounding like a voice in the wilderness. He also said the meeting between Blair and President Fernando Henrique Cardoso had been stage managed to boost Cardoso´s popularity in opinion polls. Once again this might be true but Lula´s surly, inarticulate comments show him to be the same kind of reactionary socialist who managed to keep the British Labour Party out of power for 18 years. Instead of trying to learn something Lula lost something - the opportunity to strike up a relationship with a powerful politician who could be of great help if Lula does win in next year´s elections.

Some elements in the PT have been trying to shake off its militant, socialist image by toning down the rhetoric. They have said that a PT government would honour foreign debt commitments, tackle economic reforms and continue to open the Brazilian market. However, this element will have a hard struggle in persuading the electorate that the party is really shedding the red flag. A good example was the response which the PT gave to the announcement that the IMF was to make a further US$ 15 billion available to Brazil to help it cope with the effects of the Argentina crisis.

Whereas most analysts and commentators welcomed the move Lula´s economic advisor, Guido Mantega, criticised the conditions attached to the agreement even though they had not even been made public at that time of his statement. Mantega recognised that Brazil needed the extra resources to cover its external accounts but claimed that the “collateral effects could be worse than the medicine itself.” This response was not only predictable but disappointing and shows that the PT still has a long way to go before it can be taken seriously as a party with a credible leader and credible economic policies.
(c) John Fitzpatrick 2001