by John Fitzpatrick

The resignation of Jose Genoino as president of the Workers Party (PT) on July 9, only two weeks after that of chief of staff, Jose Dirceu, means that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has lost two of his closest aides to the ongoing scandal over allegations that the PT has been paying bribes to members of other parties for their support in Congress. This affair has also cost the PT its treasurer and general secretary and now threatens Lula´s chances in next year´s elections. That is, if he stands again.

Having said that, it is far too early to write off Lula or the PT. An opinion poll published on July 12 proved this. The CNT/Sensus poll showed that Lula´s personal approval rating had actually risen despite the crisis - to 59.9% compared with 57.4% in the previous survey held in May. The disapproval rating fell to 30.2% from 32.7%. The approval rating for the government rose slightly to 40.3% from 39.8%. These findings should come as no surprise to those of us who are aware of the bedrock support Lula enjoys among ordinary people. They are also a response to those who have started calling for Lula not to stand again next year. Lula has angrily rejected this advice which, came first of all from his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Ironically, Cardoso spent much of his first mandate arranging for the Constitution to be changed so he could seek re-election.

It is hard to believe that Cardoso was putting forward this idea for the sake of the country. In fact, there is a hint of blackmail in it, suggesting that Lula will be left in peace providing he does not stand again. Such a development would benefit the PSDB greatly and enhance the chances of its candidate – perhaps Cardoso himself, the Brazilian de Gaulle. Blackmail might seem a strong words to use in these circumstances but there is something sneaky, undemocratic and dishonest about this idea. The same goes for the idea, supported in some quarters, of amending the Constitution once again to return to the previous system in which the President had a single-term mandate. What Brazil needs is continuity, not another major constitutional change. Let us hope that if Lula decides not to seek re-election next year, his decision is a voluntary one.

The big question, of course, is whether Lula knew about these bribes. If so, then he must face the consequences and so must all the other parties. The issue cannot be resolved in some kind of behind-the-scenes deal akin to a backroom coup. This whole scandal has arisen precisely because of shady deals done by politicians from various parties. The affair scandal is a test of the existing Congressional institutions and the investigating committees should be left to get on with their tasks. Few people believe that any of the wrongdoers will end up in prison but, at least, the true face of Brazilian politics is being exposed.