by John Fitzpatrick

President Fernando Henrique Cardoso used this week´s visit to Brazil of German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, as an opportunity to pursue one of his dreams - making Brazil a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
After their meeting both leaders called for a reform of the UN to allow Brazil and Germany to join an enlarged Security Council.

"Brazil and Germany have similar visions on the structure of the UN and the Security Council. Brazil strongly supports the inclusion of Germany in the Security Council and this support is reciprocated", Cardoso said. The agreement appeared in a document called "Brazil-Germany Partnership: Action Plan" which stressed the "strategic" characters of the bilateral relationship.
Brazilian diplomats believe that Germany´s open support for Brazilian membership of the Security Council was not only a sign of mutual back scratching but also highlighted the growing coordination between them in multilateral questions.  The Brazilians also claim that Russia supports Brazilian participation in the Security Council.

Even if the Brazilians are right, the chances of them realizing their dream are slight. Any radical change in the make up of the Security Council will involve many others countries and there is no chance of it happening without American support.

The Americans have been two-faced, if not hypocritical, about the UN. On one hand they have stuck firmly to resolutions which suit them - on sanctions against Iraq for example - and ignored those which do not -  Israel withdrawing from the occupied territories. The Americans have also broken the membership rules whenever it suited them by holding back payments for political reasons. However, there is little the rest of the world can do and, with their minds on the Afghanistan conflict,  the Americans will be in no mood to consider shaking up the Security Council. They will certainly not do so for a country like Brazil which is ambivalent, to say the least, in its relations with Washington.  

By hitching his cart to Germany Cardoso is also making a big mistake. Germany nowadays may be a model democracy but there are many people in Europe with long memories who recall German power with fear. Visit virtually any village in every country in western Europe and you will find war memorials to those killed in two world wars against Germany. The fall of the Berlin Wall and German reunification caused misgivings in many countries even those which were Germany´s allies. The then French president, François Mitterrand, and UK prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, were among those who expressed concern at the birth of a new Germany.  Russia would definitely not accept a permanent German seat on the Security Council   
So against this back ground why is Cardoso - and many other Brazilians - are keen on attaining this goal. The reason stems, I believe, from Cardoso´s misguided vanity. He is notoriously vain even in a country as self-conscious of its image as Brazil. He loves to show how cosmopolitan and multi-lingual he is and constantly reminds people of his academic background as a sociologist. Getting Brazil onto the Security Council would be give him the place in history he would love and nicely counterbalance his main domestic triumph, the Real Plan.  
As to the other Brazilians, many naively believe their country should be on the Security Council just because of its huge size. However, there are many other big countries such as India, Canada and Indonesia which do not make such an issue of it. If Brazil was promoted would they then demand similar treatment? Would Brazil´s neighbour and rival, Argentina, also demand a permanent place as well?
There are also many more countries like Japan which are economic giants compared with Brazil and accept the status quo. Would they remain quiet? Another pipe dream of Cardoso is for Brazil to join the G-7 group of wealthiest nations. Again this is highly unlikely and even if it did happen  would relegate Brazil to a similar humiliating position to Russia which is a hanger-on at the so-called  G-7 plus Russia meetings.

Being a member of the Security Council would bring prestige, some Brazilians believe, but what about the responsibilities it would bring?  One would be the need to take tough public decisions at critical moments and this is not Brazil´s forte. Where would Brazil stand? On the side of democratic members like the US, UK and France or with emerging market members like Russia and China?
At the same time, would the present members actually want Brazil on board? With the exception of China (which tends to use its armed power within its borders, suppressing Tibet and menacing Taiwan) the others are used to operating far from home, often in unpopular wars.  By sitting at the top table Brazil would be alongside countries which expect words to be backed up by action at times. Brazil has shown itself to be reluctant to push its influence in its own back yard, South America, so can we really believe it will be more forward globally? Would it be prepared to send troops to fight in UN operations if necessary?  
For the sake of argument let´s rule out any active military role in combat. What about peacekeeping then? Brazil´s record as a UN peacekeeper is uninspiring. Figures from the United Nations show that in October 2000 the top five contributors to peacekeeping operation were India, Nigeria, Jordan, Bangladesh and Ghana. The small island nation of Fiji has taken part in virtually every UN peacekeeping operation, as has Canada. What about Brazil? I have not been able to get up-to-date figures but its record is pretty poor and, compared with tiny places like Jordan and Nepal, pitiful. Figures from around three years ago show 27 peacekeepers in Angola, 33 in Croatia, 15 in El Salvador and around 100 in Mozambique.
As can be seen Brazil has also been selective, preferring to send men to former Portuguese colonies like Angola, Mozambique and most recently East Timor. Now, none of these places is a soft option but is there not something a bit timid about this penchant for Portuguese-speaking nations?

Finally, to get onto the Security Council Brazil will have to sharpen up its armed forces. Military, Brazil is weak with a small, poorly-trained, badly-equipped army which basically made up of conscripts. One cannot seriously imagine the Brazilian armed forces lining up in combat with American or British forces.    

Unless Brazil makes major changes in its attitude to the US and the rest of the world and proves itself ready to assume real responsibility and take tough decisions its international image will remain focused on the Carnival and football. In any case Brazil has more pressing problems than sitting at a top table and pretending it is a world power.

February 2, 2002

© John Fitzpatrick 2002