by John Fitzpatrick

On January 1, around 5,500 mayors officially took up their positions across Brazil. Most attention focused on São Paulo, where José Serra of the PSDB took over from Marta Suplicy of the Workers Party (PT), but events Rio de Janeiro, where Cesar Maia of the PFL assumed office, could have a telling effect on the next presidential election. The reason is Maia´s declaration that he would run for the presidency if he felt the circumstances were favorable. Should this happen then Serra might also decide to run.

If these suppositions come about we would have a situation in which the mayors of the country´s two largest cities would be obliged to hand over power to their deputies while they prepared for the presidential contest. This scenario shows the inherent volatility of the Brazilian political system and the need for electoral reform to bring politicians into line and force them to keep the commitments they made to their constituents. No-one voted for Serra or Maia in the knowledge that they would be stepping down after only about a year and, certainly, no-one voted for their deputies either.

Presidential Ambitions
Maia, in particular, would not agree with this analysis. He has never made any secret of his desire to contest the presidency and could even point to the fact that he was re-elected on the first ballot. However, by making the presidency the main issue as he assumed office, he abused the voters´ trust. By taking this attitude, Maia has also shown that he is not courageous or confident enough to go all-out for the big prize. Like a timid bather who dips his toe into the water to check its temperature, he wants an insurance policy in the form of the mayorship of Rio de Janeiro 

As for Serra, he said during the election campaign in São Paulo that he would concentrate on being mayor but there is nothing to prevent him resigning and aiming for the presidency should he decide to do so. After all he repeatedly said he would not contest São Paulo and changed his mind less than a year before the election.

This scenario is hypothetical at the moment for the simple reason that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has a commanding lead in opinion polls. A poll of 2,000 people carried out by the CNT/Sensus organization in December showed that 65.4% approved of Lula´s performance, compared with 58.8% in September. Simulated polls against possible presidential contenders, such as São Paulo state governor, Geraldo Alckmin, the integration minister, Ciro Gomes, and the former governor of Rio de Janeiro state, Anthony Garotinho, also gave Lula a commanding lead.

Lula has just completed his second year in office against a  background of a growing economy, with expected GDP growth of 4.5% to 5%, an  enormous trade surplus and the expectation of lower interest rates later this year. He has recently approved a higher-than-expected increase in the minimum wage equivalent to 8% in real terms, and intends paying more attention to his social commitments. At the same time, he has shown that he will not endanger economic stability by changing the free-market policies of his finance minister, Antonio Palocci.

It will take a lot to beat Lula should he decide to seek re-election. Serra was decisively defeated by Lula in the last election and faces the same prospect while Maia would be an also ran. However, we do not know what will happen over the coming 18 months and it is possible that these two recently-elected mayors may be challenging Lula in the next presidential race.

January 10, 2005

(c) John Fitzpatrick 2005