by John Fitzpatrick

The Argentinean writer, Jorge Luiz Borges, is said to have described the 1982 Falklands War between Argentina and the UK as “two bald men fighting over a comb”. This week in Brazil we have seen our version of this battle, involving former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso and current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Unfortunately for your correspondent´s comparison, both are extremely hirsute but fortunately, from the humanitarian point of view, no-one has been killed or wounded.

It is difficult to cast the urbane Cardoso as Argentina´s devilish General Galtieri, who cynically attacked the Falklands to distract attention from the mess he and his fellow soldiers were making of Argentina at the time, but Cardoso´s attack against Lula was as sudden and precipitate. He claimed the government was incompetent and said it was time for his PSDB party to take off the kid gloves and go onto the offensive.

There was an initial shock and even some of Cardoso´s admirers were a bit taken back by his harsh words. Lula and senior Workers Party (PT) leaders must have loved it because, unlike know-all Cardoso, they knew that some excellent economic figures were about to be published.

Cardoso did not have much time to revel in his surprise attack. Within a day of his comments, the official statistics body, the IBGE, announced that the economy had grown 6.1% in the third quarter, the best such result for eight years.  The accumulated figure from January to September showed GDP growth of 5.3% and analysts are forecasting growth for the year of around 5%. The President of the Central Bank, Henrique Mereilles spoke of growth of “over 4%”. Since Cardoso´s eight years in office were marked by modest growth, which never reached 5%, Lula was able to return fire. However, just as Mrs. Thatcher overreacted at the first British victory and urged the nation to “rejoice” at the recapture of the uninhabited South Georgia islands, so Lula got carried away and announced that life in Brazil was now a “bed of roses”.

This is a political and not an economics column so we will not go into the details of the figures here. I have always been skeptical about economic indicators, particularly on GDP. Last year, for example, Brazil´s GDP actually fell by 0.2% yet this week we were informed by the IBGE that those figures were wrong and the economy had actually grown by 0.5%. I do not know if this is true or is a sleight of hand but it does not install confidence. If Lula thinks that a statistical improvement over a three-month period means that life is a bed of roses then he is extremely naïve or he thinks the Brazilian people are idiots. We are still living in dangerous times and a serious setback could arise at any moment. At the same time, Lula will not admit that his most important policies are based on those of the previous administration.

In any case, just what brought on Cardoso´s outburst? He was talking to a predominantly PSDB audience which may explain the tub thumping and party politicking. At the same time, he must have known that his speech would be covered in the national press. Maybe he was trying to show the electorate that he was still alive and kicking and that both he and his party were forces to be reckoned with.

Could he even be thinking of standing for election in 2006? His intemperate words gave Lula the opportunity to appear like the wronged party. “We are in a good phase but I know that there are still many people who are hoping that things will not work out well”, he said, without naming Cardoso. There was more of the same gravity a few days later from Nanny Lula, speaking on behalf of the little ones in his care: “Those who are cheering for failure will have to apologize. Not to me, but to the Brazilian people.”  At this rate, it is only a matter of time before some PT supporter accuses Cardoso of treason and calls for his trial.

Cardoso did not do himself much good with the speech. Not only did it make the former President appear bitter and vindictive but it was also inconsistent. In his speech Cardoso accused Lula´s government of continuing with the Cardoso government´s policies and having no new ones. There is a certain amount of truth in this, particularly in the economic area. If this is the case then why exactly is Cardoso complaining? Does he want Lula to follow other policies and fail, as Lula has implied? Or is he becoming jealous? Is he in danger of imitating former president Itamar Franco, who still claims to be the father of the Plano Real which Cardoso introduced when he was finance minister?

It is time for Cardoso to think again. He was a competent President and won the backing of the Brazilian people for eight years. However, his chosen candidate, Jose Serra, lost convincingly to Lula since most people, not just PT supporters, wanted Lula in charge. They trusted Lula not to be irresponsible and he has respect that trust so far.

Cardoso should realize that no-one has a monopoly on political ideas. He should recall the fate of the UK Conservative Party after it foolishly ditched Margaret Thatcher in 1990. The new-look Labour Party, under Tony Blair, blatantly adopted many of Thatcher´s ideas and took control almost a decade ago. The Conservative Party complained to no avail and is now a pitiful remnant of what it used to be.

December 8, 2004

(c) John Fitzpatrick