Fitzpatrick, Political Analyst, Comments on Brazilian Poll

John Fitzpatrick, who runs Brazil Political Comment, a political newsletter and advisory firm in Sao Paulo, comments on the release of a Brazilian election poll by pollster Datafolha.

On the results: "Alckmin's position is still very weak. He should be getting some better positioning in the polls by now. I don't really think this decline in the difference between him and Lula is any great breakthrough for him. We are just 2 1/2 months away from the election. The free TV and radio propaganda starts in August and should help Alckmin further. That said, Lula still has bedrock support."

On the consequences of a recent wave of attacks in Sao Paulo state and the treatment of allegations of corruption by the Lula administration: "I don't think the ongoing rift between the federal and state governments over the violence situation in Sao Paulo will be relevant in the end. The wave of attacks is unlikely to hurt Lula's support. Federal corruption allegations, likewise, won't necessarily be an issue during the campaign."

"Alckmin had a good reputation as an administrator but that
won't necessarily bring him votes in other parts of Brazil" during his six years as governor of Sao Paulo state, he said. "Basically support and votes will come down to the individual character of each candidate."

On the rise of left-leaning candidate Heloisa Helena: "She has managed to get very favorable publicity even by parts of the media which do not support her leftist policies, but I don't think she has real chances of winning the election."

On the economy and the individual characteristics of each candidate:"Lula is a vibrant, charismatic candidate. He inspires voters a hell lot more than any of the other candidates. Alckmin may be an efficient politician and administrator, but he is not an inspiring kind of person, as opposed to Lula. At the end of the day, the economy is doing well. Yet, the informal part of the economy may be bigger than the formal part, so I have my doubts that the improving situation in the formal economy may benefit all people equally."