by Marco Aurélio Nogueira

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva assumed office on January 1 for the second time. The atmosphere this year was much more subdued than when he began his first mandate four years earlier. The ceremony in Brasilia was marked by rain and sparse crowds. In his speeches to Congress and the crowd outside the Planalto Palace, Lula outlined what he saw as the successes of his first term, such as low inflation, falling interest rates, an export boom, rising employment  and social inclusion programs. However, he must have known that many of those listening had other things in mind, such as the ongoing corruption scandals, feeble economic growth and rising crime. These are some of the issues which Lula will have to confront in the coming four years. In this article, political scientist Marco Aurelio Nogueira puts forward three possible scenarios which include the most likely, the most pessimistic and the most optimistic.

The first scenario suggests that the new mandate will be similar to the previous one although corruption is likely to decline. There will be little change in terms of improving the low levels of economic growth and the ongoing social inclusion policies. Politicians will protect themselves from greater political reforms. Lula will retain his popularity in the first two years but will start running out of steam in the last two, as happened to his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso. He will end his mandate without the taint of corruption which overhung his first term but he will not go down in history as the president who bridged the “social divide” of the Brazilian people.

A second scenario considers a more catastrophic situation, brought about by a major crisis of legitimacy and governance arising from, for example, economic stagnation, the return of inflation and runaway public spending, on one hand, and greater social discontent which could become acrimonious and disorganized, on the other hand. This is an unlikely prospect but it is worth considering as an undesirable option.

In the third scenario, Lula would lead and coordinate the state and society, bringing consensus and creating a new “social contract”, boosted by a rapid upturn in economic growth and the implementation of a sizeable social reform program i.e. one which does not emerge from him alone but is  created through the democratic process. His coalition in Congress would develop positively thanks to the introduction of major changes in the political system and a slow but firm alteration in the political culture of Brazil. A solid base like this would give Lula the stability and conditions to govern which would allow him to finish his mandate and hand over a country to his successor which has been remodeled and ready for growth in a socially balanced way.

Scenarios are only means for mapping out problems, possibilities and probabilities and are never entirely reflected in real life. The most interesting development would be a combination of the most realistic scenario (the first) and the most optimistic (the third) in a way which “neutralizes” the most pessimistic (the second). This combination would allow Brazilian society to achieve its hopes and potential.

This is an edited version of an article which appeared in the “Estado de S. Paulo” newspaper on 23.12.2006
© Marco Aurélio Nogueira 2007