by John Fitzpatrick

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva´s failure to win the election in the first round by a mere 1.5% was a welcome sign from the Brazilian electorate that there are limits to its tolerance of corruption and subterfuge. By refusing to give Lula the first-round victory he had craved and expected, electors were telling him that he should not take their support for granted. If he is to win the run-off against the PSDB´s Geraldo Alckmin, Lula will have to make amends and convince a large part of the electorate that he deserves its vote on his merits rather than assuming that it is his by right.

Lula´s approach to the election campaign was similar to his approach to government – accept the plaudits and sweep any problems under the carpet. He was always ready to use any opportunity to stand up and make a speech in front of an audience of supporters or hand-picked guests. He refused to discuss any policy in detail, confront a hostile audience or talk to the media. He even failed to turn up at the last moment for a televised debate with the other main candidates three days before polling day. He chickened out of this encounter by claiming that his opponents would have turned the confrontation into a personal attack on him. He spent part of the following day, the last in which canvassing was allowed, handing out pamphlets at auto plants in the ABC region of São Paulo where he started his public life as a trade union organizer. How pleasant it must be to preach to the converted.

Instead of tackling the latest scandal in which the Workers Party (PT) is accused of trying to bribe crooked businessmen to get dirt on the PSDB candidate for the São Paulo state governorship, Jose Serra, Lula tried to ignore it. He slapped a few wrists, fired his campaign manager, Ricardo Berzoini, but left him as national chairman of the PT, and made a few derogatory comments about the PT officials allegedly behind the bribery plot. At one point, he even referred to them as the“boys” as though they had committed some naughty schoolboy prank. He also tried to blame the “elite” and the media for stirring up hostility against him because of his humble social background. The usual allegations that unknown elements were plotting some kind of coup -”golpismo” in PT-speak - were made by other PT leaders. This claim is made every time the PT comes under the scrutiny of the media or the legal authorities and has never been substantiated.

The anti-Lula media was out in force and got its revenge for its failure to bring him down over the bribes-for-vote scandal, known as the “mensalão”, which the media was largely responsible for uncovering. On the day before polling took place, photos were published on the front pages of all the papers showing bundles of cash amounting to R$1.75 million (around US$800,000) which the PT plotters allegedly intended paying to the businessmen. The government and the PT had been trying to keep these images out of the public eye by claiming that the investigation was still continuing. Instead of releasing these pictures two weeks earlier and letting the matter die down, the government fell into a trap of its own making. These photos are unlikely to have swayed diehard Lula supporters but they must surely have had some effect on undecided voters.

If Lula is to win in the second round, as still looks likely, he will have to tackle this scandal head on and be prepared for more setbacks of this nature. The PSDB, backed by large sections of the media, will use all its resources to squeeze as much propaganda value as it can from the affair. A victory will not make it go away either as the police investigations unravel and it will dog the early part of any second mandate.

This result has been an undoubted setback but it is not a disaster for Lula. Nor is it necessarily a sign that voters have suddenly woken up and started to pay more attention to the ethical behavior of their elected representatives. Lula came within a whisker of winning despite the long list of scandals which has ruined the PT´s reputation as an ethical party. At the same time, voters elected people who have been tainted with allegations of corruption and wrongdoing like the disgraced former presidents Fernando Collor de Mello and Jose Sarney, former São Paulo governor and mayor, Paulo Maluf, former finance minister, Antonio Palocci, former Senate chairman, Jader Barbalho, and the former PT chairman, Jose Genoino. 

One man whose reputation has been saved by the vote is Alckmin. He can now claim to be a heavyweight with a national reputation and a future candidate should he lose in the runoff. His unimpressive campaign had led many commentators to write him off and foresee the next candidates being either Serra or Aecio Neves from Minas Gerais. Both Serra and Neves won in the first round of the state governorship elections. Another potential presidential candidate in 2010 is Ciro Gomes (PSB) who was elected to the House of Representatives. The PT has no-one of stature to replace Lula but its candidate for the governorship of Bahia, Jaques Wagner, won a surprising first-round victory which could give him a launching pad.

© John Fitzpatrick 2006