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Brazilian Whodunnits - Conspiracy or Mere Coincidence? PDF Print Mail
07 July 2003
by John Fitzpatrick

Are you the kind of person who likes conspiracy theories? You know the kind of thing: John Kennedy was assassinated because he was having an affair with Marilyn Monroe, who was a Mafia boss’s girlfriend; Marilyn Monroe was murdered by the CIA because she knew too much about plans by JFK to assassinate Fidel Castro; Ronald Reagan was a puppet of a group of shadowy right-wing millionaires from California; the US´s Middle East policy is directed by the Jewish lobby in Washington etc. If you do like conspiracy theories and unsolved mysteries then Brazil is the country for you. On the other hand if you are one of those Arthur Koestler[1] types who believe in coincidence, then there are coincidences galore as well.

Check out this list of recent and historical events and see if you have any theories:

  • In mid-June of 2003 security guards protecting one of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s sons were shot at as they waited outside a building where he was with his girlfriend. One guard was killed and their car was stolen.
  • At the beginning of June two aides to the PT national leader, Jose Genoino, one of Lula’s closest advisers, were kidnapped and robbed when three gunmen hijacked their car as they waited for Genoino to join them outside his home. The two staffers were held for an hour before being released.
  • In October 2002 a bodyguard of the eldest son of São Paulo state governor, Geraldo Alckmin, was shot dead as he waited outside the building where he was with his girlfriend. Another security guard was wounded in the attack which was carried out by two gunmen who had tried to steal the car.

Were all three incidents just coincidence, part of the alarming levels of crime which affect the mighty as well as the rest of us? None of the politicians involved has suggested any political link and neither have the police, although they have considered the possibility. 

Let us now go back a little further in history and highlight some other incidents.



[1] Arthur Koestler (1905-1983), Hungarian journalist who wrote about Stalin’s show trials in his famous novel Darkness At Noon, spent his later years study of parapsychology and tried to prove  pure coincidence was seldom “pure”. In Roots of Coincidence, (1972) Koestler tried to find in quantum physics a scientific basis for extrasensory perception. In The Challenge of Change (1973) he linked his theories on coincidence to those of Carl Jung on synchronicity. Like Getulio Vargas Koestler killed himself. Unlike Vargas Koestler’s wife joined him in a suicide pact.

[2] The survey appeard in the Folha de São Paulo newspaper in April 1986 and showed that 26% thought medical incompetence had been to blame and only 27% believed that the death had arisen from normal complications. 
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