by John Fitzpatrick

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) has been well ahead of his main rival Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) in opinion polls but a recent poll published by Datafolha shows an unexpected rise in support for the third runner, Senator Heloisa Helena (PSOL). This could mean that Lula may have to face Alckmin in a second round of voting and not achieve the victory he had been hoping for in the first round. However, it is unlikely to alter the final vote and, in any case, a run-off contest is more healthy for a young democracy like Brazil than a predictable first-round win.

Heloisa Helena, a radical leftist who was expelled from the PT for voting against government policies, appears to have become an important player in this presidential race. Her ratings in the Datafolha poll jumped from 6% to 10%. Alckmin had 29% of voting intentions compared with 28% in the previous poll while Lula had 46% compared with 44%. However, since the margin for error is 2%, these changes are not that relevant. The other serious candidate among the eight presidential contenders, Cristovam Buarque (PDT), is barely stirring interest among voters and has around 1% of voting intentions.

The big questions are whether Helena will become a serious threat to either candidate and from which candidate she will take votes. In my view, this development does not come as a surprise. Helena is completely different from the other candidates and has a novelty value. She has gained a lot of favorable publicity over the last year as a member of one of the Congressional committees investigating the "bribes for votes" scandal known as the "mensalão". She is young, idealistic, honest, likeable and a fierce critic of the PT which she feels has lost its ideological purity. She is also a woman from the Northeast which provides her with a huge natural constutency. At the same time, much of her support comes from the traditionally leftist southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul where there is much disillusionment with Lula. Helena has also been getting a lot of favorable coverage, even from by those sections of the media which detest her economic policies but recognize her sincerity.

Once the novelty value wears off and her policies are scrutinized voters will see that she has nothing positive to offer. The PSOL is a still nothing more than a breakaway group and has not yet developed into a proper party. The PSOL only has one asset at the moment – Helena – and it will need more if it to make any breakthrough, especially if it is to produce a president. We only need to recall the fate of ex-President Fernando Collor de Mello who had no strong party backing and resigned after being abandoned by Congress as he was about to be impeached. 

Although this poll is a setback for Lula, the PSDB has little to cheer about. There are even signs that some middle-class people, who should be Alckmin´s natural supporters, are backing Helena. This shows the weakness of Alckmin´s position. After three months´ exposure as the PSDB candidate, he should have made more headway by now and certainly have broken through the 30% ceiling. Alckmin will be placing a lot of faith in the free TV and radio airtime spots which begin in August. Apart from these propaganda spots, he will have a chance to tackle Lula in a live TV debate. However, if Lula is to keep this debate focused on the improving economy and his social benefit programs then he should have little trouble fending off Alckmin. As an additional backup, Lula can easily blame Alckmin for the deteriorating security situation in São Paulo state since security is the responsibility of the state and not the federal government.

Although this opinion poll points to a second round of voting there is still a fair chance that only one round will be needed. Lula is a formidable candidate and he enjoys the support of the vast majority of poorer Brazilians who are indifferent to allegations of corruption against the PT. He also has the backing of a large section of the PMDB, Brazil´s largest party. He has little to fear from Helena since, even if the election goes to a second round, her supporters are more likely to vote for him than for Alckmin.

© John Fitzpatrick 2006