by Marco Aurelio Nogueira

Last year was a memorable one. For good or bad, it will leave a deep impression on Brazil´s national life even though it was not dramatic in the sense of marking a decisive moment in history or the end of a cycle. It had a little of everything, including hopes and expectations. We spent months, for example, waiting for economic growth, job creation and a better level of income distribution. Businessmen and workers were convinced that the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would unblock bottlenecks and boost business and economic activities. It was another year of argument between the monetarists and those who wanted to loosen monetary policy and the monetarists won. Orthodox fiscal responsibility was maintained, paradoxically sponsored and respected by a government which claimed to be left-wing. However, the crisis arising from the allegations that the Workers Party (PT) had been bribing Congressmen in return for their votes pushed economic issues aside and the second half of 2005 was dominated by political in-fighting. The crisis has destroyed the PT´s image as an ethical party and jeopardized Lula´s chances of being re-elected. Having said that, we are now in an election year and the path is clear for voters to choose a president, state governors and Congressmen who will ensure that a year like 2005 will never be repeated.

A study published by the Fundação Getulio Vargas business school in November showed that 25% of Brazilians earned less than US$1 a day in 2004 compared with 36% in 1992. The concentration of wealth among the richest 10% of the population fell from 48.4% in 1993 to 44.7% in 2004. This proves that big advances have been made in this decisive area. However, these numbers give little cause for celebration, since the improvements date from previous administrations and are not related to any structured social policy of this government. In fact, they are due to aid programs such as the Bolsa-Familia which provides a grant to families providing the children attend school. On top of this, GDP growth slumped at the end of the year and opinion polls showed that President Lula had been abandoned by a section of those who had voted for him.

Myths Destroyed
Many myths were destroyed last year. The myth that the Workers Party (PT) was somehow different and superior to the others, whether in ethical, political or administrative terms, was shattered. Although the PT showed ingenuity, flexibility and downright bare-faced cheek in assembling its parliamentary base and in organizing an arrogant and almost megalomaniacal party financing scheme, it did nothing to help the Lula government in any productive way. It did not govern any better or any differently from any other government. It stuck to the usual Brazilian model and left much to be desired particularly in the area which could have been its strong point - tackling the social question.

As we enter the last year of the Lula government we are basically in the same position as in 2002. There have been no steps backward but, at the same time, no steps forward. There could have been advances even though three years may be seen as too short a time to achieve much. For example, it would have been possible to make progress on reaching a national consensus or defining the base for a new cycle of development. All we got were the same old hollow slogans. The economy developed but at the speed of a tortoise - slowly but surely - in terms of income distribution and the reduction of poverty. The government made no effort to be more aggressive in establishing a sustainable social policy model.

The myth was also exploded that those who identified with the people could govern better and would have more political goodwill. Although Lula maintained something of his popular charisma, he came to be seen as just another politician with weaknesses and idiosyncrasies. The image many Brazilians had of him as a savior-like figure was dismantled. His bombastic promises were not upheld because they were impossible to achieve and were made to dazzle the audience or because he had lost his sense of reality. 

Government Fails to Deliver
Changing society was a challenge which demanded large doses of knowledge, systematic critical thought, technical resources and a political culture which was able to interpret the existing social complexity correctly. Implementing social reform policies depends on ability in government and governance, consistent supporting policies and active social backing, realism more than pragmatism, and long-term political investment rather than short-term support. We have seen no sign of this in the Lula government until now.

The year was particularly tragic for the PT. This was not just because the crisis ruined its ethical image, as some of its members have said, but because the party did not know how to confront the crisis politically and showed itself to be slack in organizational terms. Its leadership collapsed and was diluted by the crisis and showed an enormous lack of political qualification. It provided no plausible explanation for the events and left its supporters with nothing to fall back on. The party will now have to put the pieces back together and decide its future. If it continues to provide total support to the President and contest elections in the same way with the same names it will probably prolong the agony. It will eventually have to make some painful choices; otherwise it will become unrecognizable and unimportant. It has shown no signs until now that it ready to face this struggle. However, the party still has reserves and the question is whether these members will be mobilized to undertake a more radical change.  

2005 ended badly but fortunately will be followed by an election year. We will have another opportunity to reflect on what we Brazilians want from our government. If we are lucky enough to have a contest involving intelligent debates by candidates with coherent ideas and alliances we may end 2006 in the knowledge that 2005 was a nightmare year which will leave scars but has, thankfully, gone for good.

© Marco Aurelio Nogueira 2006 - English version John Fitzpatrick